One of the few certainties in the financial advisory is that inflation is onerous for investors That lesson is being retaught this year as soaring consumer costs affect different investors in varying fashions.
Obviously, inflation is a drag and troublesome, but there's also plenty of opportunity to improve one's knowledge, thanks to inflationary pressure. It’s been so long – reportedly four decades – since invsetors have contended with an earnest inflationary climate.
Many investors weren’t investing during the last bout of inflation comparable to current one. Thinking about it, the number of investors in that position is likely expansive because inflation is currently running at its highest levels in four decades, indicating that basically all investors that are Gen X and younger are experiencing their first bout with prolonged inflation.
What’s interesting about this era of rising consumer prices as it pertains to retirement is data suggesting many folks are surprisingly confident in their retirement outlooks. The recent Retirement Confidence Survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute indicates 80% of those polled are confident they have enough savings to maintain a high quality of life in retirement while a third are very confident on that issue.
Encouraging, But Surprising
It’s certainly positive that folks are confident or very confident about their retirement outlooks, but it’s also surprising given the aforementioned inflationary pressures.
As for those that aren’t so optimistic about retirement, the EBRI turns up some unsurprising though still important data points.
“Those who are less confident cite inflation as their number-one concern. That reflects the current headlines about very high inflation rates, of course, although even moderate inflation is always an important factor in retirement plans. The spending power of $100—assuming an inflation rate of 2%—would be just $164 at the end of a 25-year retirement,” notes Morningstar’s Mark Miller.
Another point to ponder is healthcare costs. Interestingly, some of those in the inflation is transitory camp are also the folks saying “at least healthcare costs aren’t rising on par with gas and food.” Data confirm that is the case, but this scenario could change and do so without notice.
Moreover, investors should be educating themselves on what their healthcare saving picture looks like. Are tax-advantaged health savings accounts (HSAs) part of the equation? Is long-term care planned for? Again, healthcare costs in retirement, regardless of inflation, affect investors to varying degrees.
“Moreover, rising healthcare costs can be ruinous for lower-income households. Half of Medicare enrollees had income below $29,650 in 2019, and one in four was living on less than $17,000. Many struggle to meet basic needs, especially in high-cost parts of the country,” adds Miller.
Planning for Lengthy Inflation
The unfortunate reality of what investors are contending with today is that economists and some folks in the federal government badly mischaracterized inflation as transitory. It’s proven to be anything but that, indicating that those attempting to pinpoint when inflation will ease are likely running a fool’s errand.
“JPMorgan notes that annual inflation averaged 2.7% from 1982 to 2020, and then it ran at a 7.1% pace in 2021. It’s quite possible that figure will be even higher this year. For example, the Senior Citizens League forecasts that this year’s COLA could be 8.6% if current inflation trends persist for the rest of the year.”
Bottom line: With each investor's financial situation different from another’s, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to buffering against inflation in retirement. However, it is agreed that one area that everyone should focus on is healthcare. Inflationary pressures on food, gas and other items will eventually ease, but the long-term trend for healthcare costs is higher and that’s unlikely to be interrupted anytime soon.