RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATORS are getting closer to a deal, perhaps by the end of this month, after more losses on each side. Experts believe Russian troop fatalities now exceed 7,000 — an astonishing figure that includes at least three generals.
THE FINANCIAL TIMES REPORTED YESTERDAY that negotiations were becoming “more realistic,” while Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said the proposals now being discussed were “close to an agreement.”
THE PROPOSED DEAL, according to the FT, would include a cease-fire, the Ukrainian government declaring neutrality; Kyiv accepting limits on its armed forces; eastern provinces annexed to Russia; and Putin’s forces withdrawing from the rest of the country.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE DEAL would require Kyiv to formally drop its ambition to join NATO and not host foreign military bases or weaponry. In exchange, Ukraine would get protection from allies, such as the US, UK and Turkey.
RUSSIA WOULD ACCEPT a status for Ukraine similar to that of Austria or Finland, which are outside the NATO military alliance. Significantly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated that he could accept that arrangement.
SANCTIONS — THE POTENTIAL ROADBLOCK: Even if negotiators agree on a neutral Ukraine, the more difficult issue may involve the massive economic sanctions imposed on Russia. Could they get lifted quickly? That’s unlikely — the war criminal Putin is responsible for thousands of deaths in the past month, and has to be held accountable.
NEVERTHELESS, A DEAL would have major plusses for each country —
What Putin gets: He would claim a victory — a greatly reduced NATO presence on his Western borders. What Zelensky gets: The slaughter of innocent Ukrainians would end, and he could move on to a massive re-building of his country, aided by the West.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT EITHER LEADER SAYS, it will be very difficult for Putin to claim a victory; this has been a humiliation. And that’s the great wild card: could the furious dictator reject a deal, lashing out with more lethal weapons? He’s a pariah for life, even with his own people, which makes him even more unpredictable.
Related: Who Can Say No to Volodymyr Zelensky?
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.