1. Congress Has Become a Long-Term Threat to Our Economic Well-Being
In their most recent Budget and Economic Outlook, the CBO wrote, “The deficit totals $1.6 trillion in fiscal year 2024, grows to $1.8 trillion in 2025, and then returns to $1.6 trillion by 2027. Thereafter, deficits steadily mount, reaching $2.6 trillion in 2034.” Last year, when two ratings agencies downgraded their views for US debt, they both pointed to the same problem: Congress. Below is a chart from the venerable Cook Political Report that tells us why Congress has become a long-term threat to our economic well-being. — Tim Pierotti
2. Analyzing Returns After Money Market Asset Peaks
This chart shows the rise in money market assets over time, and how money markets and U.S. stocks performed over the 3-year period following peak money market assets. — Lincoln Financial Group
3. Eight Mistakes To Avoid When Taking on a New Client
You remember what some lawyers were taught: “The moment the judge says not guilty, close up your briefcase and leave immediately. Don’t hang around.” Problems can develop if the prospect thinks this is a transaction with a winner and a loser. — Bryce Sanders
4. Why Women Don’t Invest – And Why They Do
For women, getting to the investment starting line involves an obstacle course in itself. We earn less on average, most of us weren’t taught about investment – either at home or at school, and there’s a risk many women just don’t feel part of the investment world. But there is hope, because women who have clambered over those obstacles and started investing can help reveal some of the secrets of getting started. — Sarah Coles
5. The Crucial Role of Women in the Great Wealth Transfer
With thousands of baby boomers retiring by the day, increasing attention is being paid to the great wealth transfer – the movement of trillions of dollars of boomer wealth to younger generations. Advisors often look at the great wealth transfer as a generational concept and it is, but it also pays to examine how this massive shift of capital will affect men and women. Specific to the latter, it’s estimated that helped in part by the great wealth transfer, women will control $30 trillion in assets by 2030. That’s not that far off. — Todd Shriber
6. Fed Watch: The Waiting Game Continues
Unsurprisingly, the Fed did what was widely expected yet again and kept the Fed Funds target unchanged at the March FOMC meeting. As a result, the trading range remains at 5.25%–5.50%, still residing at a more than 20-year-high watermark. For those keeping track, this represented the fifth consecutive FOMC meeting where the policy maker decided to take no action on the rate front. While Powell & Co. all seem to be on the same page that a rate cut will more than likely occur sometime later this year, the next point to consider would then be when will this potential easing move occur and, more importantly, what will the rate cutting episode eventually look like. — Kevin Flanagan
7. Financial Conditions Clash with Borrowing Conditions
At last week’s FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell said, “We think financial conditions are weighing on the economy.” Powell’s statement indicates that financial conditions are tight. However, they are easy based on the Fed’s definition of financial conditions. If Powell doesn’t appreciate the difference between financial and borrowing conditions, we must assume most investors do not either. — Michael Lebowitz
8. Do Technical Measures and Valuations Truly Matter?
Technical measures and valuations all suggest the market is expensive, overbought, and exuberant. However, none of it seems to matter as investors pile into equities to chase risk assets higher. A recent BofA report shows that the increase in risk appetite has been the largest since March 2021. — Lance Roberts
9. Tax-Smart Charitable Giving: The Power of Donor Advised Funds with Hayden Adams & Ruby Pediangco
Schwab CharitableTM is an independent 501(c)(3) with a mission to increase charitable giving in the U.S. by providing a tax-smart and simple giving solution to donors and their investment advisors. In this episode, we’re joined by Hayden Adams CPA, CFP®, the Director of Tax and Financial Planning at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, as well as Ruby Pediangco, Senior Manager, Charitable Strategies Group at Schwab Charitable. — Schwab Charitable
10. This Marks the End of the Big Tech Trade
Rising stock prices only reinforced the idea that these were the best, most innovative companies on the planet. You often need a “catalyst” to spark change. My buddy and I think Google’s artificial intelligence (AI) calamity is the moment investors finally realize big tech is past its “sell by date.” It’s not just Google. Apple sank $10 billion into a self-driving car it never built. It didn’t even get as far as testing a prototype on the road. From the company that pioneered the iPod and iPhone, that’s embarrassing. — Stephen McBride
11. The Middle Seat: A Compelling Time for Middle-Market Buyouts
In most contexts, the middle seat is perhaps one of the most loathed places to be. However, if you are facing an investable landscape filled with growing uncertainty – and are (finally) convinced that trying to time the market is a bad idea – then a heightened focus on the middle-market buyout segment may be warranted. That is more than a ‘hunch’ or ‘gut-feeling,’ rather that statement is based on real private market data. — Andrew Schardt