DONALD TRUMP, CALLING THE SHOTS: The Republican Party is falling into line, not just supporting Donald Trump’s candidacy, but accepting most of his agenda.
IN RECENT WEEKS Trump has told GOP members of Congress what to do, and they have largely complied (except for the dwindling Mitch McConnell faction in the Senate). Trump doesn’t want an immigration bill unless it’s “perfect,” so there won’t be an immigration bill. He doesn’t want a budget deal any time soon, and March is the shaky new deadline. He doesn’t want aid to Ukraine, which has stalled. He doesn’t want Social Security reform, so there won’t be any.
WITH RON DeSANTIS pretty much finished, Trump only has to worry about a second place showing in New Hampshire by Nikki Haley next Tuesday. She could finish strong, losing by only 8 or 10 points, so Trump is in overdrive to win by more; he’s convinced that appearing in courts, as a martyr, will help him.
AND TRUMP HAS RESURRECTED a despicable tactic — making fun of Haley’s original Indian name, and he is questioning, falsely, whether she is eligible to run for president because of her parents’ immigration status when she was born. Barack Obama got the same treatment from Trump.
THE MORE LASTING IMPACT OF TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN is on the issues he will emphasize. In a new theme this weekend, he apparently will rant against any candidate, like Haley, who would seek to reform Social Security; he actually wants to increase benefits. This is a huge issue with voters in both parties, and it appears to us that Trump has killed Social Security reform for the forseeable future.
THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR TRUMP this winter has been immigration, which fueled his Iowa landslide. He reportedly has called new House Speaker Mike Johnson and other top Republicans, urging them to reject a border reform bill. We’re close to proclaiming this bill as dead for the year — a bitter blow to Ukraine, which will get no U.S. aid unless Congress first passes border reform.
IMMIGRATION ASIDE, Trump and his base don’t support foreign military aid. The clear move by young Americans toward isolationism is another issue Trump will exploit in the upcoming primaries. This makes hawkish Republicans uneasy, Trump’s the MAGA Republicans have the momentum.
TRUMP WILL CONTINUE TO PORTRAY THE ECONOMY as fragile and prone to more inflation, so we expect — any day now — him to call for firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term doesn’t expire until 2026. But when the President of the United States tells a government official to leave, they usually comply.
MORE TAX CUTS? Trump can read the polls, so he knows there’s a deep antipathy toward taxes. Tax cuts are like catnip for most voters, and Trump will make the extension of his 2017 tax cuts a major theme. He will warn that Democrats will kill those cuts, which would be a de facto tax hike.
AFTER HIS IOWA ROMP, Trump sounded conciliatory, urging the country to unite. That lasted for a day; he quickly turned to mocking Haley’s Indian name and heritage. Will this style eventually turn off moderates by November? Too soon to tell.
THE COUNTRY MAY TIRE OF TRUMP’S CONTROVERSIES, and Trump could face a backlash this summer and fall. He’s far from certain to win re-election, but watch the issues he raises in these early primaries — they have widespread support and Republican members of Congress are falling into line.
Related: Immigration Issue Reaches Boiling Point
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