S&P 500 buers had a good Friday, and market breadth confirms that beond cyclicals leading over defensives. Even if bonds are relatively cautious, there is still more juice in this bear market rally left – I continue leaning bullish, clearly bullish. The dollar isn‘t going anywhere, has been my memorable call almost two weeks ago before the BoJ not yielding an inch move – the dollar relief rally isn‘t yet here, and more downside looms.
This already had powerful consequences for real assets – neither precious metals, nor copper corrected much, and crude oil is on a slow but firm upswing too. Circling to China and its role in the world economy, the reopening has put a fine floor beneath even as the Fed continues tightening and foreign central banks such ECB promise to quicken their pace.
Fed pivot? Not even a Fed pause – only a slowdown in pace of rate increases while balance sheet shrinking remains on a preset trajectory. None of this bodes well for the financial conditions that have become overly easy with the soft landing hopes. True, unless the pace of layoffs quickens (more news beyond AMZN or MSFT), the soft landing odds went up, which has consequences for inflation, especially services inflation. And the Fed won‘t like that, and will reevaluate what‘s the restrictive Fed funds rate level accordingly – if they insist, then even 5.50% can get too low for Kashkari.
Good luck with earnings projections and valuations – and don‘t forget about those two rate cuts priced in for late 2023.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
Gold, Silver and Miners
Gold with silver are to do well, front running first the dollar and then also yields. Miners are confirming, and no deep correction is ahead. Back and forth with an upward bias.
Crude oil is gathering strength for upswing continuation – $85 is the next upper target, followed by the tougher $88 area. Oil stocks support the move, but it‘s the $91 – $93 area (to give in by late spring) that would be key to return of bullish spirits.
Shallow pullbacks in copper are still being bought, and base metals together with precious metals, would be the stars of 2023.