HARD TO BELIEVE IT’S SEPTEMBER, but here we are, with fall beginning in three weeks. It’s been a remarkable summer, with some extraordinary developments. Here’s our Top Ten themes:
1. The Economy: Solid U.S. economic growth was the big summer surprise, driving interest rates higher. A soft landing is possible in the U.S. but an ominous slowdown is underway in China, with economic growth sagging in Germany and most of Europe.
2. The political issue of the summer: Simply, it’s age — as Joe Biden catches a break. The focus on age isn’t on him, it’s on Mitch McConnell, who faces a serious health issue. Biden looks like a youngster compared to McConnell, Dianne Feinstein and many others. Voters want fresh faces.
3. Donald Trump’s pretty good summer: He faces an avalanche of legal problems next year, but Trump begins the fall with an overwhelming lead for the GOP nomination. The indictments haven’t dented his popularity among the GOP base.
4. The unthinkable becomes more likely: There’s an increasingly plausible scenario of Trump winning the GOP nomination, then running for president while under indictment. A jail sentence isn’t out of the question by late next year. Could Trump win the presidency? A major theme this summer is that he could.
5. Ron DeSantis and the hurricane: Political careers have been made and ruined by weather disasters, and suddenly the beleaguered DeSantis caught a break — he has handled a major hurricane very well.
6. A bad summer for Vladimir Putin: His economy is sputtering, Ukrainian troops finally are advancing, and his response to a rebellion was to kill his opponents. Putin is on very thin ice as inflation erupts in Russia.
7. The summer of labor conflicts: The next key date is Sept. 14, when the United Auto Workers contract expires. Talks on a new deal have gone poorly, and a strike seems increasingly likely; even if there’s a settlement it will be very, very expensive. Wage inflation will stay “sticky” for the Federal Reserve.
8. A looming budget crisis: Hard-line conservatives in the House have been vocal this summer in opposing a continuing budget resolution this fall — and a government shutdown looms on Oct. 1.
9. The immigration crisis worsens: Arrests of families flowing into south Texas have exploded this summer; this will re-emerge as a major political issue this fall.
10. The summer of Taylor Swift: She and Beyonce have single-handedly boosted economic growth in cities where they perform; hotels are sold out when they’re in town. Whether it’s concerts or cruises, people seemed eager to spend this summer.
THE JURY IS OUT on whether people will continue to spend — as student loan repayments loom, along with a shaky real estate market and the impact of Fed tightening.
IT WAS A SURPRISINGLY UPBEAT SUMMER, aside from the ravages of climate change. This autumn, we suspect, will be more difficult as a key variable looks shaky — real disposable income may be on the verge of maxing out.
Related: The One Albatross Joe Biden Can’t Shake
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