IT’S IMPOSSIBLE TO EXAGGERATE the mood of despair among Democrats in this town. Joe Biden’s job approval ratings continue to plunge and he’s now the underdog in the 2024 election, as young people abandon him, with virtually all issues — except abortion — breaking against him.
THE REFRAIN PERSISTS: Increasing numbers of Democrats, fearing steep House and Senate losses, want Biden to consider dropping out. But he’s angry, rejecting the polls, and has dismissed calls to step down.
THE DEMOCRATS’ KING isn’t Biden, it’s Barack Obama, who could win a third term if the Constitution allowed it. Obama has huge clout within the party, and we’re hearing that he is privately telling Democrats that Biden probably can’t win.
SO WE WILL ASK, ONCE AGAIN, whether there’s any chance Biden could drop out. Filing deadlines have come and gone in key states, making it difficult for any last-minute challengers, but Biden surely has thought about stepping down, giving his party a better chance next November. If he did, Kamala Harris would be in the mix along with a dozen others, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
THERE’S A CHANCE BIDEN COULD WIN, OF COURSE, if voters realize that the economy is in good shape, if harsh GOP abortion restrictions motivate voters, and if Donald Trump’s toxic rhetoric scares moderate voters. Those issues should weaken Trump, but his polling numbers have risen in the past two months.
AS A RESULT, DEMOCRATS RUNNING FOR OFFICE next fall are already putting distance between themselves and Biden. “We have a chance of saving the House and Senate,” a Democratic strategist told us yesterday, “but that will require running away from Biden, not with him.”
CRUCIAL JANUARY: Whether Biden can launch a comeback may depend on what happens next month. Congress faces two budget deadlines, on Jan. 19 and Feb. 2, and there’s a chance of an impasse and a shutdown. Biden could portray the new House Speaker, Mike Johnson, as an obstructionist. And a huge fight looms in January on border reforms, tied to aid for Ukraine and Israel.
IF THE WINTER ENDS with no improvement in Biden’s job rating, we don’t rule him dropping out; maybe there’s a 25% chance. President Lyndon Johnson withdrew on March 31, 1968, after a shaky performance in the New Hampshire primary, which he actually won.
THE DEMOCRATS’ GLOOM this holiday season is partially aimed at Biden, who has botched the immigration issue. It’s also based on a growing fear that if Trump wins re-election, he would extract revenge on anyone who has opposed him. Trump’s unabashed goal of becoming a dictator doesn’t worry his base, but four years of another Trump presidency has many desperate Democrats looking for an alternative to Joe Biden.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS: We wish you and your families a joyous holiday season. We’ll get caught up on sleep and publish sporadically for the rest of the year — or not at all.
Related: Donald Trump’s 2024 Agenda
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