Four Brexit Lessons That Still Matter for Protecting Your Wealth

Ten years ago this week, the world watched the United Kingdom vote to walk away from the European Union.

While the political class was clutching its pearls and every talking head on television was promising Armageddon by Christmas, I told you something different. I told you that when the establishment panics, the serious investor reaches for gold.

Since the 2016 referendum, the yellow metal has tripled in price. It broke through $5,000 an ounce earlier this year before catching a breather near $4,000.

Over the same stretch, we’ve lived through a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, two energy crises, a land war in Europe and a trade war. Through all of it, gold has kept its head while governments lost theirs.

To observe Brexit’s 10th anniversary, I’m sharing four lessons, which have almost nothing to do with the UK and everything to do with how you protect your wealth.

#1 – Uncertainty is the Fear Trade’s best friend.

Ten years ago, I couldn’t have told you that a virus would shut down the planet, that Russia would torch Europe’s energy market, or that the UK would cycle through prime ministers like paper towels. Nobody could.

But I didn’t need to. All I needed to know was that we’d entered an age of constant uncertainty, and that gold helped investors manage it.

This is what I’ve long called the Fear Trade. It’s why central banks continue to stock up on bullion. And it’s why I still recommend a 10% weighting in gold, with 5% in physical gold, 5% in gold miners. Boring? Maybe. But the boring trade tripled, outperforming British and European stocks.

#2 – Sometimes sovereignty comes with a cost.

Some critics like to point out that Brexit failed to usher in booming growth, as many people in the Leave camp argued would happen. In fact, a Stanford economist estimated that the British economy is likely 8% smaller today than it otherwise would have been.

That said, I don’t believe Brexit was purely an economic policy. It was a constitutional decision, a vote to reclaim British government and culture from a committee of unelected bureaucrats. As I wrote 10 years ago, “British citizens and businesses have grown fed up with an avalanche of failed socialist rules and regulations from Brussels, responsible for bringing growth and innovation to a grinding halt.”

I appreciate how Michael Caine put it. The legendary British film actor, 93, said in a 2017 interview that he voted for Brexit because he’d “rather be a poor master than a rich servant.”

Ten years ago, Britain elected to be masters instead of servants. Whether you think that was wise or foolish, it’s the one thing that an economist’s spreadsheet can’t measure.

#3 – Don’t forget to collect your dividends.

To reiterate, a post-Brexit, Thatcher-style boom never arrived. But it’s important to understand why it never arrived.

The inconvenient truth is that, after voting to leave the bloc, Britain has barely used the freedoms it fought for. According to the Cato Institute, the UK government still has close to 7,000 European laws on the books. The bonfire of red tape never got lit.

And the political class? It burned through five prime ministers in 10 years, one of whom lasted all of 49 days.

That’s not to say Westminster has been completely idle. They reformed the EU’s strict Solvency II insurance rules, and since the referendum, London’s insurance market has doubled to $187 billion, the largest in the world. The City, London’s financial district—which doomsayers swore would dry up—is instead near record employment, posting record bank profits and ranks as the number two destination for global capital anywhere on the planet, hosting some $16 trillion of it.

The country’s services sector—financial, business, travel and tourism—has also held up nicely, with exports to EU countries growing approximately 60% from 2015 to 2025.

#4 – The crowd is often loudest right when it’s the most wrong.

Public sentiment can be a fickle thing. According to a recent Ipsos poll, close to 60% of Britons said they would vote to rejoin the EU today. About half say they support a new referendum after the next General Election, which will be held no later than August 2029.

But ask those same people if they’d be fine with the euro, open borders and Brussels’ socialist rules, and the number drops.

Ten years ago, the crowd was screaming that the UK had just committed economic suicide, that a recession was right around the corner. They were wrong then. Today, some in the crowd are now screaming because they have buyer’s remorse, or “Bregret.” Are they wrong now?

I won’t presume to know how people feel. What I do know is that public sentiment is often loudest right at the turns, when it’s about to be proven wrong.

That’s why I think it’s always a good idea to think twice before trading on the noise. The serious investor learns to do the opposite of the mob—to feel a little nervous when the crowd is irrationally exuberant (RIP Alan Greenspan), and vice versa.

Ten years ago, they were screaming about Britain, and today they’re screaming about something else. Gold doesn’t care, and neither should you. 

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best performing airline stock for the week was Allegiant, up 15.2%, on the back of lower fuel prices. According to Bank of America, Brent is down 28% over the past month, domestic capacity growth is now flattish from June through September, and real-time demand indicators remain firm through mid-June. Airline equities have responded, rallying 26% over the same period with broad-based strength across the group. With pricing strength driven by strong demand and airlines pricing through higher fuel, the key question is how much of that can be retained as fuel declines.
• Shipping rates rose 11.8% week-over-week (WoW) on North American routes and 9.5% on Europe routes. The structure driving the increase in spot freight rates (seasonal demand growth due to an early peak season and continuation of surcharges/GRIs) remains unchanged, explains Morgan Stanley.
• As reported by Bank of America, the Airline Fares CPI rose 26.7% year-over-year (YoY), while the Air Passenger Services PPI increased 14.4% year-over-year. The Airline Reporting Corporation’s Average Ticket Price strengthened 18.5% year-over-year in May, with economy fares (+20%) continuing to outpace premium (+14%) for the third consecutive month.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing airline stock for the week was Trip.com, down 9.3%, on a weaker second quarter outlook. Air New Zealand passenger revenue in the current quarter is likely to be slightly below UBS’s estimate, with lower capacity across both short-haul and long-haul routes (only partly countered by higher passenger yields, especially on long-haul routes). The carrier’s schedule points to a further modest decline (-1% YoY) in seat capacity in the third quarter.
• Effective shipping capacity remains constrained by port congestion, longer voyage distances, lower sailing speeds, and network disruptions, resulting in a much smaller increase in effective capacity than suggested by nominal fleet growth, reports UBS.
• JetBlue recently announced its plan to shut down key operations at Newark and LaGuardia airports to shift focus to the more profitable South Florida market, noting the steep $40 per customer “enplanement” cost as particularly harmful, according to Morgan Stanley.

Opportunities

• Castlelake’s latest cash-and-share offer of 650.5p per share has been rejected by EasyJet, reports Morgan Stanley, following the rejection of three earlier proposals at 560.0p, 600.0p, and 625.0p per share. The latest offer implies a valuation just below EasyJet’s estimated owned asset value of 660.0p per share (approximately GBP 5.0bn). Castlelake is urging shareholders to pressure EasyJet’s board to engage, alleging that the airline has shown an “unwillingness to engage meaningfully.

• UBS remains constructive on the long-term trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas production footprints and building international brands. The momentum of outbound investment and globalization remains intact despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Key sectors driving this trend include the following: Home appliances, where leading manufacturers continue to establish overseas manufacturing, distribution, and service networks; New energy industries, including electric vehicles and related supply-chain participants; Industrial and raw-material sectors, such as steel structures, chemicals, and construction materials.
• Gulfstream, Dassault, and Embraer are well ahead of typical seasonality, explains UBS, pointing to upside versus consensus, while Bombardier will need a slightly heavier quarter-end than usual.

Threats

• According to Bank of America, YoY comparisons become less supportive as the summer approaches, following an easier second quarter backdrop. Airline credit card spend was down roughly 10% YoY from April-June last year, before inflecting sharply from mid-June to mid-July, improving from -15% to -3% and resulting in July/August comps of mid-single-digit declines. Through late June and July, airline spending trends will be increasingly important in assessing demand sustainability as the comp. tailwind fades.
• The orderbook/fleet ratio has reached 38% for all container ships, says Morgan Stanley, and 51% for 8000+TEU vessels. The group expects effective capacity to grow 6.1% and 7.1%, respectively, in 2026 and 2027, while growth for 8000+ TEU vessels is seen reaching 8.4% in 2026 and 8.8% in 2027, well above normalized demand growth of 3-4% per annum.
• According to Goldman, the number of inbound visitors to Japan in April/May 2026 was down -6%/-4% YoY (+22%/+13% excluding mainland China/Hong Kong), with weakness in inbound visitors from mainland China/Hong Kong dragging down the overall YoY growth rate.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strengths

• Chinese jewelry demand remains resilient despite weaker gold prices, with 44% planning to buy jewelry and 84% of buyers expecting to spend more over the next year. Overall luxury spending also remains healthy, supported by rising budgets and income expectations.
• U.S. economic data surprised to the upside this week, with both personal income and consumer spending exceeding expectations, pointing to resilient household demand. The stronger-than-expected GDP reading further reinforced the view that the U.S. economy remains solid.
• Salvatore Ferragamo gained 12.2% over the past five trading days, making it the top performer in the S&P Global Luxury Index. There were no major Ferragamo announcements this week, and the stock benefited from improving sentiment toward beaten-down European luxury names following the industry’s updated outlook.

Weaknesses

• LVMH faced renewed legal scrutiny this week after filing a legal response in the Nicolas Puech/Hermès shares dispute, reviving headlines around the long-running case and creating a modest reputational overhang for the luxury sector despite no direct impact on LVMH’s operations.
• Euro-area PMI data disappointed, with manufacturing activity coming in weaker than expected, while the services PMI remained below the 50 threshold despite a modest improvement. The readings emphasize that the region’s recovery remains fragile, with overall business activity still stuck in contraction.
• Ananti, a South Korean luxury hospitality and resort operator, fell 24.2% over the past five trading days as it was caught in a broad selloff in South Korean equities after the KOSPI corrected rather than because of company-specific news.

Opportunities

• UBS analyst Jay Sole sees AI as a potential catalyst for Tapestry’s long-term growth. While the company is already leveraging AI through its proprietary Mira platform to improve decision-making and operational efficiency, Sole believes continued advances in AI capabilities could further strengthen customer engagement, marketing effectiveness, and sales growth over time.

• Tesla will report second-quarter deliveries in two weeks, and results could come in better than expected if higher oil prices boosted consumer interest in electric vehicles. Energy prices spiked following the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While President Trump initially expected the conflict to be resolved within several weeks, the situation has broadened, with concerns surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz contributing to higher gasoline prices. Historically, periods of elevated fuel costs have increased consumer interest in EVs.
• China’s newly announced 15-point foreign investment plan signals a more supportive policy program change for economic growth and private-sector activity. Given the importance of Chinese consumers to global luxury demand, improved business confidence and stronger capital inflows could help improve the outlook for luxury brands with meaningful exposure to China.

Threats

• South Korean stock markets corrected by almost 10% on Tuesday, driven primarily by declines in semiconductor and technology stocks, raising concerns that the momentum in AI and technology may not be sustainable. This sell-off in technology spread to other consumer discretionary and travel stocks, pulling luxury names lower. If the technology sector continues to correct, it could reduce investors’ and consumers’ available capital, potentially weighing on discretionary spending.
• Last week BMW announced a profit warning citing weak sales in China and increased competition there from the domestic players, pushing the shares of BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen lower. German EVs’ accounted for less than 2% of China’s EV sales in the first quarter of 2026. The United States market could be more promising to the made-in-Germany car maker, but the EU car industry is facing a 15% tax on car exports to the U.S.
• Carnival, a cruise line, issued a profit warning for the remainder of the year and cut its earnings-per-share guidance for the second quarter, citing the prolonged crisis in the Middle East. The company appears to have assumed, like many investors, that tensions in the region would subside after a few weeks rather than persist for months. The crisis has affected demand for cruises, particularly in Europe and the Mediterranean.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• The best performing commodity for the week was lumber, up 4.17%. Lumber prices face a tightening supply backdrop as Weyerhaeuser, one of the world’s largest producers, cuts second quarter wood products guidance, citing lower volumes and rising unit manufacturing costs driven by transportation constraints analysts expect to ripple across the industry. Constrained supply meeting sticky cost inflation creates a natural floor for lumber prices, embedding a cost-driven premium that supports pricing power even in a softer demand environment.
• The Dallas Fed Energy Survey showed a sharp surge in oil & gas sector activity in the second quarter (Q2) of 2026, with the business activity index jumping from 21.0 to 46.1 — its strongest reading since Q2 2022 — driven by higher capex, modest production gains, and rising employment. The EIA also reported an 11th consecutive crude draw of 6.09 million barrels, well above consensus, alongside a 9.1-million-barrel SPR withdrawal that pushed reserves to their lowest level since 1983, reinforcing near-term tightness in the physical market.
• Caterpillar’s Solar Turbines division should benefit from Project Kilby, Chevron’s 20-year power agreement with Microsoft for a ~2.67 GW natural gas-powered data center in West Texas. Targeting first power in 2028 and a Chevron FID by year-end 2026, the project reflects surging AI-driven data center power demand that is filling Caterpillar’s order books. The tailwind supports its record $63 billion backlog, planned tripling of large engine capacity by 2030, $10 billion annual cash flow, sub-1x manufacturing leverage through 2027, and single-A credit profile.

Weaknesses

• Lithium carbonate was the week’s weakest commodity, down roughly 9.60%, as CATL’s sodium-ion push challenged the battery-demand premium. The world’s largest EV battery maker plans to supply sodium-ion batteries for 10,000–20,000 EVs this year and launch a sodium-based storage system globally by mid-2027. That shift creates a credible substitution risk, weakening the lithium demand narrative and pressuring the premium tied to an uncontested lithium-battery future.
• Qatar’s LNG recovery remains partial and uncertain, with two production trains at Ras Laffan representing about a fifth of total capacity still damaged. Global LNG prices in Europe and Asia remain elevated above pre-war levels despite tentative peace progress, leaving Asian spot buyers scrambling for supply even as Qatar’s Prime Minister signaled output from undamaged facilities would return to normal within weeks.
• U.S. cobalt supply chains absorbed a significant blow as Sherritt International shut down its Fort Saskatchewan refinery in Alberta, Canada’s only cobalt refinery, after U.S. sanctions on Cuba cut off feedstock supplies from its Moa joint venture. The facility will remain idle indefinitely with no restart timeline, highlighting how Washington’s Cuba policy is rippling through critical mineral supply chains beyond U.S. borders.

Opportunities

• Canada’s first national nuclear strategy targets up to 10 large reactors plus small modular reactors (SMRs) by 2035–2040, with explicit CANDU backing, federal financing tools, accelerated permitting, and an export push — creating a meaningful multi-year project pipeline. AtkinsRealis is the primary beneficiary as the owner of CANDU technology, with Aecon as a secondary pick given its reactor construction track record, and the April 2027 financing framework serving as the next key policy catalyst to watch.
• The U.S. Army will allow several companies to build critical mineral processing facilities on military bases nationwide, with firms including Titan Mining and REalloys set to develop graphite, rare earth, lithium, and boron plants at installations in Arkansas, Alabama, Utah, and beyond. The initiative is part of the Trump administration’s broader push to reduce dependence on Chinese critical mineral imports, with production at some sites to be stockpiled on base for military use.
• Walmart’s first nuclear power purchase agreement, 176 MW tied to a specific perishable distribution facility at the Dresden nuclear plant, (whose units just received 20-year license extensions through 2049–51), signals that big-box retail is joining tech hyperscalers in locking up long-duration clean baseload power. The U.S. DOE is separately providing $17.5 billion in loans to support 10 Westinghouse AP1000 reactors across five projects, benefiting Cameco, which co-owns Westinghouse alongside Brookfield Renewable Partners.

Threats

• China’s blacklisting of MP Materials and USA Rare Earth restricts their access to Chinese dual-use technology, weaponizing supply chain interdependence even as both companies have been actively reducing Chinese input exposure. Paired with the G7’s 60% import concentration cap and the State Department’s FORGE program backed by $14.8 billion in EXIM financing, this week’s developments signal that the rare earth supply chain race is now moving at geopolitical speed, creating structural tailwinds for any Western company with integrated processing and magnet manufacturing capabilities, Bloomberg reports.
• America’s nuclear renaissance faces critical bottlenecks despite momentum: fewer than 5,000 certified nuclear welders nationwide, a projected 320,000 welder shortfall by 2029, and dependence on Russia for 40–45% of global uranium enrichment while domestic HALEU (high-assay low-enriched uranium) production remains negligible. First-of-a-kind SMR costs of $89–$180 per MWh versus $40–$65 for natural gas, combined with a history of nuclear projects exceeding budget, suggest significant cost overrun risks even as JPMorgan warns that aging U.S. grid infrastructure poses a national security risk with $5.8 trillion in global grid spending needed through 2035.
• Oil theft in the Permian Basin has escalated to an estimated $1–2 billion annually, with thieves using vacuum trucks to siphon crude from storage tanks, posing as waste haulers, and laundering stolen barrels through disposal facilities or smuggling them to Mexico. Despite new Texas legislation, an FBI task force, and a Railroad Commission study, local law enforcement solves only about 2% of cases — and 40% of oil executives now report being victimized in the understaffed counties where the thefts are concentrated, adding an underappreciated operational risk layer to an otherwise bullish Permian production outlook.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Uniswap, the largest decentralized exchange, and Spark, a DeFi protocol focused on stablecoin liquidity, are developing a shared liquidity network to enable seamless transfers between stablecoins. As an initial step, Spark will migrate $150 million in liquidity to Uniswap v4, supporting USDS, USDT, and PYUSD. With the stablecoin market projected by Citi to grow from $300 billion to $4 trillion by 2030, the initiative aims to build the infrastructure needed for a multi-stablecoin financial ecosystem.
• Circle, issuer of the USDC stablecoin, has partnered with Nomura Holdings, one of Japan’s largest financial institutions, to launch a digital asset settlement business by 2027. The platform will enable Japanese companies to use USDC, which has a $73.8 billion market capitalization, for cross-border payments and foreign exchange settlements, targeting a market that processes approximately $440 billion in daily FX transactions.
• Crypto-backed super PAC Fairshake spent more than $5 million supporting Adrian Boafo’s successful congressional campaign, contributing to nearly $40 million invested by crypto and AI groups in this week’s races. Analysts now expect a potential bloc of 70+ pro-crypto Democrats in the next Congress, reinforcing the industry’s growing influence over future digital asset legislation.

Weaknesses

• Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-week moving average, a technical level historically associated with prolonged bear markets, as investors prepare for a $10.6 billion quarterly options expiry. The weakness comes alongside $469 million in daily spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and nearly $300 million in average daily redemptions over the past week, increasing the risk of heightened volatility if the $60,000 support fails.

• Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is facing growing scrutiny as the prolonged decline in Bitcoin has pushed its holdings to an $11 billion unrealized loss. The company’s cash reserves have fallen 36% in 2026 to $1.4 billion, while it continues paying an 11.5% annual yield on preferred shares used to finance Bitcoin purchases, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of its funding strategy.
• CoinShares, one of Europe’s largest digital asset investment firms, surveyed 261 wealth advisors and found that 61% work at firms that restrict or provide no guidance on digital assets, leaving much of clients’ crypto holdings unmanaged. In the UK, 52% of advisors said more than half of their clients’ crypto assets sit outside their oversight, highlighting how institutional policies continue to slow the integration of digital assets into traditional wealth management.

Opportunities

• Ripple, a blockchain payments company that develops digital payment infrastructure for financial institutions, has received approval for its RLUSD stablecoin from Japan’s Financial Services Agency. SBI VC Trade, the cryptocurrency exchange subsidiary of Japanese financial conglomerate SBI Holdings, will offer RLUSD to both institutional and retail investors. Since launching in late 2024, RLUSD has grown to a $1.7 billion market capitalization, strengthening Ripple’s position in cross-border payments, tokenization, and trade finance.
• Hyperion Decimus, a digital asset hedge fund, says four proprietary onchain indicators have aligned for only the sixth time in Bitcoin’s 15-year history, with each previous occurrence marking a major market bottom. While the firm expects confirmation within the next 90 days, it also highlights improving fundamentals, including rising wallet activity and continued Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges, suggesting an increasingly attractive long-term risk-reward profile.
• USDT0, Tether’s omnichain stablecoin infrastructure backed 1:1 by USDT, has surpassed $100 billion in transaction volume in less than 530 days since launching in 2025. Now live across 23 blockchain networks, USDT0 enables seamless cross-chain transfers without wrapped tokens, highlighting growing demand for interoperable stablecoin infrastructure as institutions and AI-powered applications increasingly adopt blockchain-based payments.

Threats

• Binance has withdrawn its MiCA license application in Greece after regulators indicated approval was unlikely, forcing the exchange to restart the process in another EU country. With the July 1 compliance deadline approaching, crypto firms without a MiCA license risk suspending operations across the bloc. The setback underlines the growing regulatory challenges facing even the industry’s largest exchange.
• TRM Labs, a blockchain intelligence firm, alleges that CoinEx, a Seychelles-based cryptocurrency exchange, facilitated more than $3.84 billion in blockchain-traced flows involving sanctioned Iranian crypto entities over the past seven years, including $2.7 billion linked to Nobitex. CoinEx disputes the findings, but the report stresses the growing compliance, sanctions, and anti-money laundering risks facing global crypto exchanges.
• Bithumb, one of South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, was fined 210 million won (approximately $136,000) after regulators found it shared users’ personal information with overseas platforms without proper consent. The case emphasizes growing regulatory scrutiny over cross-border data transfers and highlights the increasing compliance requirements crypto exchanges face as global privacy standards tighten.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• In its preliminary May 2026 results, Micron Technology reported exceptional growth driven by surging artificial intelligence demand. Revenue rose 73.75% quarter-over-quarter and 345.72% year-over-year to $41.5 billion, while diluted EPS increased 104.39% quarter-over-quarter and 1,368.45% year-over-year to $24.67. Management said demand for high-bandwidth memory continues to outpace industry supply, leading the company to secure “take-or-pay” agreements through Special Purpose Entities with 16 strategic customers extending through calendar year 2027. Despite earnings potential approaching that of NVIDIA in the near term, Micron continues to trade at a significant valuation discount, reflecting investors’ view of the memory market as inherently cyclical versus NVIDIA’s software-driven competitive moat.

• Lockheed Martin secured a new $35 billion, seven-year undefinitized contract for THAAD interceptors from the U.S. government.
• Australian defense contractor Electro Optic Systems (EOS) has secured a $124 million contract with UAE-based Generation 5 Holding to supply and co-produce its Slinger counter-drone remote weapon systems between 2027 and 2028. This deal is part of a broader strategic alliance that includes establishing a joint venture in Abu Dhabi dedicated to manufacturing high-energy laser weapons and developing next-generation 300kW counter-UAS technologies.

Weaknesses

• Reports that OpenAI may delay its initial public offering until 2027 due to market volatility and financial readiness concerns weighed on AI-related stocks, with Oracle shares falling sharply. Investors viewed the news as a potential sign of cooling AI infrastructure demand, given Oracle’s roughly $300 billion cloud computing agreement with the ChatGPT maker.
• Italy has initiated an antitrust investigation into Microsoft 365 over alleged unfair pricing methods related to automatic subscription upgrades.
• Germany abandoned its six-ship F126 frigate program, affecting European defense stocks like Saab, Leonardo, Rheinmetall and BAE.

Opportunities

• IBM announced a new 0.7-nanometer chip technology using a redesigned transistor structure, which it says could deliver up to 50% better performance or 70% improved energy efficiency. The news boosted IBM’s share price as investors reacted to the potential leap in computing power.
• Zscaler has formed a multi-year cybersecurity partnership with the Aston Martin Aramco Formula One team to protect sensitive data and enhance brand visibility.
• Thales, Airbus, and Leonardo are urging EU regulators to approve Project Bromo, a proposed three-way merger of their satellite and space divisions to create a unified European space group aimed at better competing with global players such as SpaceX.

Threats

• An Iranian drone launched by the IRGC struck the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, damaging the vessel’s bridge and forcing the UN to halt its mass evacuation operation of commercial ships from the Persian Gulf due to security risks.
• IBM`s CEO Arvind Krishna warned that large-scale AI infrastructure buildouts may require trillions of dollars in capital expenditure, questioning the economic viability of such investments unless they generate substantial profits to cover associated interest costs; this cautious view was echoed by Zoho founder Sridhar Vembu.
• Putin said there is currently no basis for negotiations with Zelensky, citing strikes on civilian infrastructure, and claimed the U.S. is stepping away from the Anchorage agreements. The comments signal a further escalation in tensions, while the Trump administration appears to be shifting toward stronger support for Zelensky’s government.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed the week at $4,085.70, down $160.20 per ounce, or 3.77%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 7.76%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in off 6.72%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar rose 0.48%.

Strengths

• The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, still down 3.77%. The World Gold Council published results from its 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, highlighting unanimous positive gold sentiment within the central bank community. Among a total of 76 central bank participants, 89% expect total global central bank gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, while 45% believe their own institution will add to reserves.
• China’s monthly gold imports reached their highest in more than two years in May, showing the world’s biggest buyer’s appetite for bullion remained resilient as prices remained under pressure. Imports were around 163 tons last month, the highest since March 2024, according to customs data released on Saturday.
• According to Scotia, SSR Mining announced the successful completion of the sale of its 80% ownership stake in the Çöpler mine and related properties in Türkiye to Cengiz Holding A.S. and affiliates. At closing, SSR Mining received approximately $1.49 billion in cash consideration, which is expected to be used for reinvestment in the business, capital returns, and accretive growth initiatives. The closing of the Çöpler sale comes ahead of previous expectations targeting the third quarter of 2026.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing precious metal for the week was silver, down 11.19%. Silver has dropped sharply from its earlier peak, bringing the gold-silver ratio back to around its historical median, and suggesting the move in silver could be cooling off. However, with the Fed’s hawkish stance raising the opportunity cost of holding metals, and silver still trading at a mild premium to its gold-correlated value, further losses cannot be ruled out.

• Macquarie Group Ltd. pared its outlook for gold for the third and fourth quarters, echoing similar moves from Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Gold is now seen at $4,450 an ounce in the third quarter, down by 3.3% on the prior outlook, and $4,300 an ounce in the fourth, 2.3% lower, analysts including Peter Taylor said in a note.
• First quarter GDP came in at 2.1%, exceeding expectations of just 1.6%, and further exacerbating any expectations for an interest rate cut by the Fed in the near term. Gold extended losses to trade below $4,000 an ounce as interest rates climbed. The price of gold “is increasingly recoupling with real yields,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.

Opportunities

• For Bank of America’s coverage, they determine the implied gold price that causes each company’s share price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) multiple to equal its 15-year historical average. The group finds that companies in its coverage are, on average, pricing gold at $3,354 per ounce, 19% below spot at $4,156 per ounce, suggesting that precious metal equities are attractively valued.
• According to Scotia, the three companies with the best geopolitical risk profiles (i.e., the highest scores) are Agnico Eagle, IAMGOLD and Kinross. Of the streamers, OR Royalties has the best geopolitical risk profile, in their view. Barrick’s risk profile shows an improvement year-over-year as Fourmile valuation increased relative to value in higher risk jurisdictions. 
• According to RBC, Alamos’ outlined exploration results have the potential to support higher-grade mill feed for the expanded Magino mill, which could result in higher production rates. Specifically, a new zone of mineralization was defined at the Island Gold West Extension, which is located near-surface and could be mined via ramp.

Threats

• Media reports suggest the government of Ghana is considering cancelling Gold Fields’ mine lease at Tarkwa (due to expire April 2027) but is also weighing an extension. The decision will depend on Gold Fields’ proposal for further local employment, infrastructure, and environmental rehab contribution. On Bank of America estimates, Tarkwa makes up 14% of NAV and 16% of fiscal year 2027 production.
• Guinean President Mamadi Doumbouya announced a ban on raw gold exports, to boost local processing of the metal and help the domestic economy. Doumbouya made the announcement during a meeting with industrial and artisanal gold producers as well as gold buying offices operating in the West African nation, according to Bloomberg.
• According to Scotia, Mexico remains a higher-risk jurisdiction given ongoing concerns around mining law changes, concession uncertainty, security, and policy direction. Colombia and Ecuador remain higher risk, with security, political stability, and regulatory uncertainty continuing to weigh on mining investment. DRC, Mali, South Africa, and Guinea remain higher-risk African jurisdictions, reflecting issues such as security, fiscal/regulatory uncertainty, legal-system concerns, and policy instability.

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