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Housing starts and permits are each expected to exceed 1.4 million seasonally adjusted annualized units in tomorrow’s print with the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market pointing to 83% and 70% chances of the metrics surpassing that threshold. The results are anticipated to arrive in the ballpark of the year-to-date and 12-month averages of 1.43 million and 1.37 million for starts, respectively, and 1.43 million and 1.42 million for permits. Construction has not returned to the robust levels that occurred after the pandemic, as mortgage expenses are too elevated on a relative basis while valuations have ramped up materially. This morning’s miss on homebuilder sentiment additionally reflected those headwinds, with the 34-print coming in far beneath the neutral level of 50. In the Reuters monthly poll of 34 forecasters, meanwhile, the median estimates are at 1.43 million and 1.42 million amidst minimum and maximums of 1.37 million, 1.38 million, 1.48 million and 1.46 million. It’s important to mention, however, that these releases have higher-than-normal deviation rates, meaning that the actual figures can vary widely from the consensus range.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the afternoon of June 15, 2026.
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