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If you listened solely to the mainstream media or consumer sentiment polls this week, you might believe the U.S. economy was grinding to a halt. The Consumer Confidence Index fell nearly 7 points in November, a byproduct of the record-long government shutdown, while 57% of Americans anticipate a weaker economy in 2026, according to a recent Deloitte survey.
But if you were to head to the airport or a major retailer this week, you’d see a completely different reality.
Polls and surveys can be helpful on occasion, but as investors, I think it’s important to look not just at what consumers are saying but also what they’re doing. Americans are telling pollsters they’re anxious about the future, but they’re voting with their wallets in a record-setting way.
The Golden Age of Travel Continues
I’ve written often about the Golden Age of Travel, and this holiday season is proving that the trend is far from over.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) expects this Thanksgiving holiday travel period to be the busiest in 15 years. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is prepared to screen more than 17.8 million people this week—3 million on Sunday, November 30, alone.
In fact, eight of the 10 highest-volume days in TSA history have occurred in 2025, representing a daily increase of about 14,000 travelers per year over 2024. This tells me that despite the economic headwinds, the “experience economy” is still winning, and Americans are unwilling to sacrifice their mobility and family time.
The Strategic Shopper
This year is setting up to be a red-letter holiday shopping season, with consumers appearing to be focused on deals and promotions.
The National Retail Federal (NRF) predicts holiday sales will surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever in 2025. This ambitious forecast comes as the average shopper tells Deloitte they expect to spend $1,595 this holiday season, which is down a not-insignificant 10% from 2024.
So how do you get record aggregate spending with lower individual budgets? The simple answer is volume. According to the NRF, approximately 187 million people are planning to shop during Thanksgiving weekend, a new record.
You can see a preference for value in the strong earnings from discount retailers like Walmart, which raised its 2026 sales outlook based on e-commerce growth (27% globally in Q3) and success in attracting high-income shoppers. Deal-seeking consumers are relying on promotions, with 82% planning to shop during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, up from 79% last year, according to Deloitte.
Inflation’s Uneven Impact
The data shows that inflation is sector-specific, leading to trade-offs at the register. For instance, the total cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10, as measured by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), was down 5%, primarily because a 16-pound turkey accounted for its lowest share of the dinner cost since 2000. That’s the good news.
The bad news is the side dishes. Items dependent on high labor costs, like vegetable trays (up more than 61%) and sweet potatoes (up 37%), posted some of the most eye-catching increases this year.
This uneven impact stretches far beyond the dinner table. The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle, for example, surged past $50,000 for the first time ever in September. The 3.7% annual gain was the largest since the spring of 2023.
Climbing the Wall of Worry
Despite the headwinds—a recent government shutdown, high tariffs, elevated inflation expectations—American consumers remain the engine of the U.S. economy. They’re worried, yes, but they’re also boarding planes and spending where they find value.
The market always climbs a wall of worry, and right now, the U.S. consumer is showing remarkable resilience.
Given the ongoing economic uncertainty and the strong structural drivers for precious metals, I continue to recommend a 10% weighting in gold, with 5% in physical bullion and 5% in high-quality gold mining stocks.
The picture for the yellow metals looks highly positive, I believe. Deutsche Bank just raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,450 per ounce and sees a high-end range of $4,950 next year, citing persistent central bank buying and growing ETF investment. Looking further ahead, the investment bank maintains a strong $5,150 price forecast for 2027.
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