Looks like an interest rate cut could come as early as next week.Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at lower rates earlier this month.Now investors are pricing in a 100% probability that the Fed will lower interest rates when it meets next week, according to global brokerage company CME Group.This would be the first rate cut since December 2008, when the Fed cut rates to effectively zero and kept them there for seven years.The Fed started raising rates in late 2015. Then it pumped the brakes after the stock market fell 20% at the end of 2018. Now it’s probably going to lower rates again .This is good news for US stocks. And healthcare stocks in particular…
Interest Rate Cuts Boost Healthcare Stocks
As you might know, the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates when it’s worried about the economy.A lot of the worry here stems from weak manufacturing, housing, and jobs numbers that have come in recently. In these cases, the Fed often lowers rates to try to boost economic activity.In any case, lower rates are good for stocks across the board. The last six times the Fed cut interest rates during an economic expansion, the S&P 500 gained almost 10% on average over the following three months.Healthcare stocks did even better. They outperformed the S&P 500 by an average of 7% in the nine months after a rate cut, according to Barclays.Even when the S&P 500 pulled back 20% from October to December last year, healthcare stocks only fell about half as much. You can see this in the next chart.
There’s good reason for this. Investors buy healthcare stocks during periods of economic uncertainty because the healthcare industry is remarkably consistent.For the most part, people spend money on healthcare no matter what. That means healthcare companies enjoy stable revenues. And their stocks can pay reliable dividends.Nothing Stops People from Buying Tylenol
America’s aging population is a part of the reason healthcare is such a safe bet.It’s simple: 10,000 Baby Boomers are retiring every day. These people are getting older. And that means they need more medical care.This translates into very consistent spending on healthcare. In fact, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) says US healthcare spending will grow 5.5% annually through 2027.
There isn’t much that could stop that growth.Think about it… the weak manufacturing numbers I mentioned earlier won’t stop anyone from buying Tylenol, or arthritis cream, or diabetes medication.This kind of reliable spending is why investors buy healthcare stocks when the economy is weakening. People pay for healthcare—period. That means healthcare companies earn stable profits no matter what.So investors buy in, and stock prices go up.On top of that, healthcare stocks often pay safe and reliable dividends…
