S&P 500 bulls came back, 3,910 support held, and the dollar was unable to hold on to intraday gains really. In the European morning, I doubted the bearish shift materializing later today as the Fed speakers‘ risk-off momentum did wear off already yesterday. Precious metals are indeed leading the charge among real assets, and I‘m still not writing off crude oil.
S&P 500 looks likely to conquer the low 4,010s today, which would flip the daily chart distinctly bullish again. Paying off not to panic – the Fed‘s ability to tighten in the face of slowing economy, is correctly being doubted – 4.50% Fed funds rate year end is still a great tightening achievement but stocks are willing to run higher in its face.
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Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook
Fake breakdown on low volume attracting no sellers – that would be the most likely conclusion after today‘s closing bell.
HYG posture is bound to improve further today – the downswing was bought, and white body candle awaits today while TLT more or less erases yesterday‘s decline.
Gold, Silver and Miners
We haven‘t seen an important precious metals top – the sector will likely hold on to and extend today‘s premarket gains. Silver is still recharging batteries, but will recapture $22 with ease.
Oil downswing appears overdone, but unless $82.50 is recaptured and WTIC starts outperforming especially base metals, the short-term outlook is tricky. Oil stocks not joining in the slide, is though positive – so, I‘m not turning bearish.